Augur Gives Insight Into Early Days With Data Release
Having launched its mainnet service in July, the Augur prediction market platform has now been operating for nearly two weeks. Despite receiving some criticism, Augur appears to have largely lived up to its high expectations.
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Augur Finds Users, Closes First Bets
The first markets (or wagers) on Augur were resolved only nine days after the roll-out, with World Cup matches being an early user favorite:
The first markets have successfully resolved on Augur!
— Augur (@AugurProject) July 19, 2018
Augur also released some statistics from the first few weeks of operation in a July 18th blog post, saying that more than 460 markets had been created, with a total of $1.3 million USD worth of ether in contracts. For the first resolved markets, around $20,000 worth of ether was paid out. The latest markets can be seen at predictions.global.
Prior to the mainnet launch, there was speculation that Augur would create congestion on the Ethereum network and lead to disruptions for other users. At present, that problem seems to have been avoided, though Augur went as high as a top five DApp on the Ethereum network in terms of transaction numbers. However, as of July 19th, it was ranked the 14th most popular DApp, per dappradar.com, while State of the DApps has it ranked at 16th.
Open Markets, Bets Galore
There are currently 502 open markets, with the top eight by open interest all being crypto related. The biggest market stands at around $645,000, with the question being: “Will the price of Ethereum exceed $500 at the end of 2018?” The yes camp is in the lead with 64 percent placing their bets on the affirmative.
The second-largest market is “Will REP token trade above $32 at the end of 2018?” (REP being the native token of Augur). With $226,000 on the line, 89 percent are voting yes.
The first non-crypto markets are number nine, which asks who the 2018 Major League Champion will be (22 percent pick the Houston Astros), and number ten, which asks if U.S. President Donald Trump will be elected to another term (80 percent think so).
Criticism and Opportunity
While a milestone has certainly been reached, not everyone has been impressed by Augur’s early days. Redditor GR3Gx complained about the usability of the interface after seeing a negative balance of “Yes” shares after purchasing them, saying that:
“That’s a Shame, Not sure how that could have happened. The UI is confusing and i’m still learning but i know for a FACT I bought “YES” shares instead of Selling.”
Over on the Coin Talk podcast, hosts Aaron Lammer and Jay Kang took a look at Augur earlier this week. They found the odds given by some markets to be implausible and thought there simply wasn’t enough volume on the platform, noting that there were only 330 addresses using the DApp at the time of their review. Their observations seem to match up with the data seen on predictions.global, which currently shows that only the top 69 markets out of 502 have any money riding on them at all.
Have you used the Augur prediction market platform? What was your experience?
Images via Pixabay