Beware the ‘Buy THESE Cryptocurrencies This Year!’ Columns
In the game of coins, much is inscrutable, most certainly the future. With so many dynamics and trends in flux, trying to accurately project crypto prices even one week ahead is a crapshoot, much less end-of-the-year prices. That’s why you should beware “These cryptocurrencies are the year’s best buys!” columns for the pulp that they typically present.
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DYOR Authorizes the HODL, Not Vice Versa
Don’t count your chickens before they hatch. And don’t buy your crypto based on what other people say will happen.
It’s not that the pulpy punditry can’t be right sometimes. It’s moreso that there’s just way more they can be wrong about since no one can take into account the whole range of present and future possibilities.
At best, these “Best short-term plays” and “Best long-term hodls” articles offer points to consider. But in a space where DYOR (“Do your own research”) authorizes the HODL, it’s necessary to consider much, much more.
That advice might sound like a given. But it’s not to many. Sometimes, just seeing or hearing a crypto’s name dropped by a pundit is enough to send droves of investors to the world’s various exchanges.
Here’s why you should think thrice before doing so.
Why the Pulp Is Pulp
You can roughly slot these kinds of “Check these coins!” articles as deriving from one of three different types:
- Enthusiasts, often relative newcomers, who are passionate and high off the exciting cryptoverse and dispense sincere, if not general, analysis.
- Crypto content writers who don’t necessarily mean harm but are incentivized to produce content for $. The content can be neutral or biased for or against given cryptocurrencies.
- Outright shills.
Cases can be made for how all three of these types have their judgments affected in one way or another, with the grander point being that they are not be the best source for investment strategy accordingly.
If you need something done, you’ve gotta do it yourself as the saying goes. When it comes to cryptocurrency investing, you must take the research burden upon yourself and not let others author your path.
And even with that said, your research can only take you so far, too, which hearkens back to the point that the future of the cryptoeconomy is constantly in flux and thus largely inscrutable — short-term, mid-term, and long-term.
Orientate yourself accordingly, or play someone else’s game.
Even the Pros Get It Wrong
Tom Lee is the research head at Fundstrat Global Advisors and has a quarter of a century of experience on Wall Street.
As such, he’s no slouch when it comes to having a sharp analytical mind. And he’s been no slouch in increasingly applying his analytical skills to studying the cryptoverse over the past few months.
But even his projections can be off, which doesn’t bode well for the vast majority of amateur crypto soothsayers.
For example, Lee came out last week and suggested that previous years’ price movements around the annual Consensus conference suggested this year’s conference might provide enough steam to push the bitcoin price over $15,000 USD.
As we all know now, though, bitcoin is hovering just above $8,000 at press time even though Consensus just ended. There was no conference bump to be had this year, even though these bumps most certainly came into play in the past.
CRYPTO: #Consensus2018 rally did not happen, very disappointing. What we needed was a trifecta of progress: (i) institutional custody/tools; (ii) buy-in by banks/investment managers; (iii) regulatory clarity (3 of 3 needed), but we got progress on (i) and (ii). Full text below pic.twitter.com/XcqNhgYgK7
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) May 18, 2018
So past performance isn’t indicative of future performance. Which is why you should be meticulous with your cryptocurrency moves and skeptical of most strategic punditry.
What’s your take? Where do you go for your crypto research needs? Let us know in the comments below.
Images via Digital Business, CNBC