Grizzled: Welcome the Longest Bitcoin Bear Market Yet
The bitcoin price last peaked just below $20,000 USD on December 17th, 2017. It’s now been 411 days since then, a stretch that beats out the genesis cryptocurrency’s previously reigning bear market record of 410 days. Though for the coin’s impassioned backers, little has changed from the price sag beyond the exchange rate.
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Day for the Books as Bitcoin Hits New Bear Market Milestone
9864 hours, or 411 days, or 58 weeks and some change — however you slice the span, if you mark Dec. 17th, 2017, as the final day of the last bitcoin bull market, then as of Feb. 1st, 2019, bitcoin has surpassed its previous 410-day bear market record.
Today, we're creating history with 411 days of bear market and the longest since #Bitcoin was born.
No one can tell us exactly when is going to end, but it is important to remaining focused on the long-term and remember that it cannot last forever. pic.twitter.com/IkDFwnnRN5
— Galaxy (@galaxybtc) February 1, 2019
Of course, some pundits consider the present bear market to have started as late as February 2018, but even so, the general takeaway would still be the same: bitcoin is deep amid a historical downturn.
How much longer will that be the case? It’s the 100 billion satoshi question for now.
The last comparable record was established between November 2013 and January 2015, when the cryptocurrency space was considerably leaner. Much has changed since that time both in and around the cryptocurrency ecosystem, but a bearish trend dominated then just as it has as of late for BTC.
For further comparison, bear markets have lasted around 14 months on average in the U.S. stock market since 1945. Stocks and bitcoin are apples and oranges, so that benchmark probably means little for the cryptoeconomy other than to suggest that de-risking investment environments can have long arcs.
And so long as BTC’s bearish trend is still in gear, there’s always the possibility its price could go lower yet before the bulls can roar back in the cryptoverse.
Reading the TA Leaves
So will there be further bleeding in the interim?
That remains to be seen for the OG cryptocurrency, but some analysts, like Bitsonline resident technical analyst Ramiro Burgos, think further sliding could be in play for the foreseeable future.
“If nothing arrives to stimulate the market to the upside, the bitcoin price will head down to the pre-bubble support at $2,000 USD to test a ‘V’ bounce near $2,500,” Burgos said this week.
And popular cryptocurrency analyst Murad Mahmudov has recently made the case that the bitcoin price’s final bottom in this current bear cycle could be as low as $1,700.
1/ Why I believe the famous 200-Week Moving Average support from the last bear cycle WILL BREAK during this bear market cycle:
— Murad Mahmudov 🚀 (@MustStopMurad) January 31, 2019
Then again, BTC could explode upwards in the markets tomorrow and not look back for months. It’s possible. This is all just to say that bitcoin traders may not be out of the bearish woods yet.
For Proponents, Little’s Changed Of Course
Regardless of BTC’s long slide from $20,000, believers still see the crypto’s value proposition as being the same as it was before, during, and after the 2017 bull run: it’s scarce, permissionless money for everyone in an irreversibly digital and globalizing world.
If every millionaire in the US wanted to have just 1 bitcoin they wouldn't be able to.
There will always be fewer bitcoins than there are millionaires in the US (let alone the whole world).
Ignore this at your own risk.
— Misir Mahmudov (@misir_mahmudov) January 31, 2019
And for this lot of believers, price goes up and down and is thus fleeting, but what counts is that bitcoin is still as scarce and as permissionless as ever and progressing technically and socially, even if steadily.
After all, Bitcoin experienced its 10th birthday this month, and its proposed second-layer scaling solution, the Lightning Network, is growing. For some, the fledgling longevity and advancements — and what they could forebode — are what matters most.
What’s your take? When will the current bitcoin bear market end? Make your predictions in the comments section below.
Images via Pixabay